I. Introduction
A. Background and context on global warming as a growing environmental issue
Overview of scientific consensus on climate change and human causation through greenhouse gas emissions
Brief history of global warming topic emerging as a concern and need to take action addressed in international agreements
B. Purpose and thesis of research paper
Research aims to comprehensively examine evidence and impacts of climate change in order to underscore the severity and urgency of addressing this issue through worldwide collective action and policymaking.
Thesis: The conclusive scientific evidence and accelerating impacts of global warming demand an immediate and far-reaching global response through worldwide cooperation on transitioning away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy sources, as delaying action risks catastrophic consequences.
II. Evidence that global warming is occurring and human-caused
A. Scientific data showing rising global temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over past century
Provide graphs and charts analyzing historical land temperature and sea surface temperature records from NASA/NOAA back to 1880 showing a clear warming trend
Discuss Keeling Curve measurements from Mauna Loa starting in 1958 documenting rising CO2 levels not seen in nearly 800,000 years
B. Attribution studies finding human activities are extremely likely the dominant cause of recent warming
Summarize IPCC conclusions and conclusions from several National Climate Assessments that industrial activities releasing GHGs are extremely likely the primary drivers of warming since 1950
Explain radiative forcing concept and how additional GHGs like CO2, methane and nitrous oxide are trapping more heat in lower atmosphere from infrared radiation emitted from Earth’s surface
C. Physical understanding of greenhouse effect and scientific evidence confirming it is occurring due to rising CO2 levels
Discuss how CO2 molecules can absorb and re-radiate infrared light based on their molecular structure, elevating lower atmospheric temperatures
Cite ice core records showing high correlation between past CO2 and temperature, indicating the primary mechanism of recent warming
D. Disproving alternative explanations like solar activity or natural multi-decadal cycles
Solar and other natural factors insufficient to explain current rapid warming trend according to research
Show how temperature changes from previous natural events involved more gradual warming and cooling over centuries rather than rapid current warming within one generation of humans
III. Impacts that have already occurred and future projected impacts of further climate change
A. Observed impacts that have already been linked to human-caused global warming
Rising sea levels jeopardizing coastal infrastructure and communities globally
More extreme weather events becoming more frequent and severe like hurricanes, wildfires, heat waves and droughts
Ocean warming causing coral bleaching and ocean acidification threatening fisheries and ecosystems
B. Projected impacts in coming decades according to climate modeling and risk analysis if global CO2 emissions continue increasing
Rising probability of annual hottest temperatures surpassing human habitability thresholds without action in some regions
Analyze recent IPCC report projections for temperatures, precipitation changes, sea level rise and storm/fire weather risks under different scenarios
Evaluate projections for regions including the Arctic, South Asia, Middle East and Central America as the most vulnerable hotspots
Assess risks of potential climate tipping points and feedbacks like permafrost thaw, Amazon dieback and changing monsoons
IV. Scientific and economic consensus on the need for large-scale mitigation policies
A. Discussion of past IPCC reports and National Climate Assessments calling for urgent reductions in global GHG emissions consistent with keeping warming below 2°C to avoid worst impacts
Provide an overview of the major transformations to global energy systems and societies proposed by experts
B. Findings that benefits of action outweigh costs from measures like carbon pricing, renewable investments, energy efficiency and R&D
Summarize studies showing significant economic costs ahead if no action taken and no adaptation measures can fully substitute for strong mitigation
Cite independent analyses showing policies to rapidly transition away from fossil fuels are economically affordable and even a net job creator in the long run
C. Scientific advice that delaying action risks passing climate tipping points and locking in catastrophic and irreversible changes
Address research showing how reduced policy delays until impacts are already evident can undermine ability to hold warming below dangerous thresholds
D. Analyze political and societal barriers to overcoming the fossil fuel interests preventing needed transition but also discuss signs of progress from new policies and clean tech advancements
V. Recommendations and conclusion
Recommend specific policies and actions needed for countries worldwide aligned with scientific targets like globally implementing carbon pricing, eliminating fossil fuel subsidies, transitioning energy/transportation systems to renewables
Call on political leadership worldwide to take urgent coordinated measures and for greater public awareness and demand for bold action
Conclude by underscoring the severity and immutability of the science demonstrating that continuing down the current path risks long-term societal collapse as global temperature increase threatens civilization – bold climate action is therefore imperative for humanity’s common future.
Andrew Stroud